21H1's home net profit is + 5% compared with the same period last year, and the clean energy transformation starts.
Changyuan Electric Power released the report: 21H1 achieved revenue of 5.93 billion yuan, year-on-year + 38%, return to the mother net profit of 260 million yuan, year-on-year + 5%, deducted non-post-160 million yuan, year-on-year + 32%; corresponding to 21Q2 revenue of 4.14 billion yuan, year-on-year + 34%, return to the mother net profit of 150 million yuan, year-on-year-32%. By adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the 21-23 net profit will be 60,000,80,000,000 yuan and 0.34yuan, respectively, for EPS. The average value of comparable PB of thermal power / new energy generation in 21 years is 0.74 Universe 1.89x. The "14th five-year Plan" company makes every effort to promote the construction of clean energy in Fengfengshui, and its value is expected to be revalued, giving it a 21-year target 2.3xPB with a target price of 10.18 yuan per share. Taking into account the high volatility of coal prices, new energy transformation expectations have been reflected in stages, downgraded to overweight rating.
Thermal power and wind power have a high growth rate, and the growth rate may narrow in the second half of the year.
21H1 company completed 15.818 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation, retroactive year-on-year + 34%, of which thermal power + 38%, thanks to the recovery of electricity and heat demand in Hubei (the province's electricity consumption + 25%), thermal power unit utilization hours increased significantly; hydropower generation-18%, subject to the drying up of incoming water; wind power generation + 79%, mainly due to the grid connection of new projects and the increase of average wind speed. Changes in the global epidemic put pressure on the sustained recovery of the economy, there is some uncertainty about the high growth of electricity consumption in the second half of the year, and we expect the growth rate of 21H2 electricity to slow down.
The operation of high coal price affects the profit of thermal power, and electricity price rises slightly.
The unit price of comprehensive standard coal in 21H1 company is 847.2 yuan / ton, which is + 152.4 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. Coal prices rose sharply, affecting operating profits of 697 million yuan, completely offsetting the increase in electricity consumption (500 million yuan). The supervision of safety and environmental protection in the main coal-producing areas remains unabated, while imported coal is still weak, and the increase in coal output is limited.
We expect short-term supply to remain tight, coal prices may remain high and coal-fired profitability will continue to be under pressure. The average feed-in price of 21H1, excluding tax, was 356.56 yuan / MWh, an increase of 3.50 yuan / MWh over the same period last year, resulting in an increase in operating profit of 28 million yuan, which was not enough to hedge against cost-side pressure; the average hot price was 47.69 yuan / GJ, down 0.57 yuan / GJ from the same period last year.
Adjust profit forecast and downgrade to overweight rating
The company completed the acquisition of Hubei Electric Power in 21H1, with a substantial increase in the installed scale, increasing the power of thermal power and new hydropower; the company's "14th five-year Plan" aims at low-carbon transformation, and the installed capacity and electricity of new energy are expected to increase. By adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the net return profit for 21-23 years is 60,000,80,000,000 yuan (previous value:
5.70.00 billion yuan (RMB). The company's current share price corresponds to 21-year 2.19xPB, which is higher than the average value of thermal power / new energy power generation PB 0.74max 1.89x (Wind consensus expectation), which we think reflects the optimistic expectation of the market for the company's positive transformation of clean energy. The value of the company is expected to be revalued, given 21-year 2.3xPB, with a target price of 10.18 yuan per share (previous value: 5.00 yuan per share, based on 21-year 1.1xPB), downgraded to overweight rating, taking into account coal prices and new energy transformation expectations have been reflected in stages.
Risk tips: coal prices rose sharply; electricity prices adjusted sharply; power recovery was not as good as expected.
