Original title: "terrorist data" arrived today! Investment banks warn that retail sales may not be as good as expected. Is it all the fault of delta?
Source: FX168
On Tuesday, Aug. 17, the market will usher in a key risk event of the week-- US retail sales in July, with investment banks warning that the data may be much lower than expected.
The U.S. Census Bureau will release monthly retail sales figures at 8:30 eastern time on Tuesday (20:30 Beijing time on Tuesday). Just a few days ago, consumer confidence at the University of Michigan fell to its lowest level since 2011 because of concerns about the COVID-19 epidemic and its impact on the economy.
According to Dow Jones,Economists generally expect retail sales to fall 0.3 per cent in July, compared with 0.6 per cent growth in June. Retail sales excluding cars are expected to grow 0.2 per cent, compared with 1.3 per cent in June.
Us retail sales are expected to fall in July as consumers react to novel coronavirus's variants of delta and delay online and car purchases.
Tuesday's U. S. retail sales report is the main event on the U. S. economic calendar this week. JPMorgan Chase & CoSaid that this will exacerbate the recent market tension. The market generally thinks that the monthly rate will fall by 0.2%, but they think it will be a big drop.
JPMorgan Chase & Co highlighted his credit card spending data and said last week's decline in consumer confidence was "consistent with recent signs that changes in Delta could dampen consumer spending, and we expect the retail report to fall well below the 1.5 per cent consensus in July".
Bank of America CorporationEconomists at Bank of America predict that the decline in retail sales may look worse, down 2.3 per cent from a month earlier. Excluding cars, retail sales will fall 2.4 per cent month-on-month.
Economists used Bank of America Corporation's credit card data in their sales analysis, and they expect the report to show a bigger decline than normal, as July already includes Amazon.Com Inc in the past.Daily sales of member promotion. This year, Amazon.Com Inc's golden day has been advanced to June 22nd.
"this is not a single part of the story. This seems to be a broader slowdown, "said Joseph Song, senior economist at Bank of America Corporation." "from our point of view, it is important that online consumption in July is lower than in June."
Song said spending on services continued to be good, but at a slower pace, according to credit card data. Travel spending slowed significantly, with air travel spending negative and hotel spending falling that month.
"We are starting to see some correction, especially in discretionary spending and tourism," he said. Song said online retail spending was negative for the month, according to credit card data, falling 2 per cent in the last seven days of July.
Consumers account for about 70% of the US economy, and their spending is an important force in economic growth. Song said he expects a rebound in August as consumers go back to school to shop.
"We think Prime Day has had an impact on this because of weak online consumption, and we hope things will improve in August," Song said.
"Tourism was improving throughout June 2021 and is now starting to decline-mainly air travel, but accommodation is also starting to show some weakness." "this shows that consumers are becoming more cautious because of the increase in Delta variants," he said. "
"American Consultative Council consumer confidence, consumer confidence-they all reflect some degree of deterioration. It does look a little weak, "Song added.
However, other economists predict that the rapidly spreading Delta novel coronavirus has not had much impact and that there could be a virus-related pullback in August and late September.
Michael Gapen, chief u. S.economist at Barclays, expects retail sales to grow 0.2%, but he points out that it could also be negative. He said that if there is a decline, it is not necessarily because of the current COVID-19 epidemic.
"this does not mean that novel coronavirus causes people to cut back on spending and stay at home. This will be related to bottlenecks, "the supply chain is affecting the availability of goods," he said.