欧盟提出实施碳边界调整机制（CBAM）的举措颇为大胆，但鉴于全球不同地区对解决气候问题的态度差距日益扩大，此举并不出人意料。欧盟对进口商品和服务制定碳价格实质上是将它致力于解决气候问题的决心传递给贸易伙伴。此举确保了本地生产商的竞争力不会因为进口商品未面临同等程度的环境审查或成本而受到削弱。毫不意外，欧盟的贸易伙伴对边界调整机制持抵制态度。有关展开贸易战和发生国际争端的威胁充斥报端，但欧盟的立场依然坚定。中国、巴西、南非、印度、澳大利亚和俄罗斯等国一直反对CBAM。但这些国家中有些也在制定自己的碳政策。
2019年按原产国划分的欧盟进口商品份额
来源：欧盟委员会、彭博新能源财经。（注：进口份额以吨计算得出，指计划中欧盟CBAM所涵盖行业（不包括电力）按进口量排名的前30个国家/地区。）
2021年1月，俄罗斯在萨哈林岛的碳排放交易体系（ETS）试点获得批准。尽管这距离成为全国性ETS还有很长的路要走，但此举也初步表明其不得不接受欧盟绝不退让的事实。
中国的全国性碳排放权交易市场刚刚开始交易。尽管目前仅纳入发电企业，但已经为未来纳入其它行业打好基础。
2019年巴西经济部推动政府、私营行业与国际组织承诺“加速研究”创建碳交易市场。
根据各自在针对行业在欧盟进口中所占份额，俄罗斯、土耳其和中国面临的费用最高。印度和澳大利亚面临的CBAM费用微不足道，但它们仍然对此持反对态度。
土耳其宣布将建立全国性ETS，今年2月已开始试点。虽然正式日期尚未确定，但可能会尝试加快进程，以便为欧盟2026年实施CBAM做好应对准备。
特朗普下台意味着欧盟面临的贸易争端对手少了一个。拜登政府已经制定了自己的边界调整计划。
CBAM可能将增加市场需求和欧洲排放配额（EUA）价格。免费分配机制退出的进程将决定市场看涨的程度。
The EU's initiative to implement the carbon Boundary Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is bold, but it is not surprising given the growing gap in attitudes to tackling climate problems in different parts of the world. The EU's carbon price for imported goods and services is essentially a transmission of its determination to address the climate problem to its trading partners. This ensures that the competitiveness of local producers will not be undermined by the fact that imported goods are not subject to the same level of environmental review or cost. Not surprisingly, the EU's trading partners are resistant to the border adjustment mechanism. Threats of a trade war and international disputes abound in the press, but the EU's position remains firm. China, Brazil, South Africa, India, Australia and Russia have been opposed to CBAM. But some of these countries are also developing their own carbon policies.
Share of EU imports by country of origin in 2019
Source: European Commission, Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (note: the import share is calculated in tons, which refers to the top 30 countries (excluding electricity) in the planned EU CBAM (excluding electricity) ranked by import volume. )
In January 2021, Russia's pilot carbon emissions trading system (ETS) in Sakhalin was approved. Although there is still a long way to go to become a national ETS, the move also shows that it has to accept the fact that the EU will not budge.
China's national carbon emissions trading market has just begun to trade. Although it is only included in power generation enterprises at present, it has laid a good foundation for the inclusion of other industries in the future.
In 2019, the Brazilian Ministry of economy urged the government, the private sector and international organizations to commit themselves to "accelerating research" to create a carbon trading market.
Russia, Turkey and China face the highest costs according to their respective share of EU imports for specific industries. India and Australia face negligible CBAM costs, but they are still opposed to it.
Turkey announced that it would establish a national ETS, which began a pilot project in February this year. Although an official date has not yet been set, attempts may be made to speed up the process in order to prepare for the implementation of CBAM by the European Union in 2026.
The fall of Trump means that the EU faces one less rival in trade disputes. The Biden administration has drawn up its own border adjustment plan.
CBAM is likely to increase market demand and European emission quota (EUA) prices. The process of the withdrawal of the free distribution mechanism will determine the extent to which the market is bullish.
