The surrounding ports are transformed and the throughput is expected to be stable.
In the future, the construction of Tongzhou City Deputy Center and Xiongan New area will support steel consumption and iron ore import demand, while electricity consumption growth will support thermal power generation and coal transportation demand. Even if the policies of carbon neutralization and environmental protection lead to a reduction in the total demand for iron ore and coal in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, the transformation and upgrading of Qinhuangdao Port and Tianjin Port will overflow bulk goods to Tangshan Port, which will help keep the cargo throughput of Tangshan Port stable.
Competition slows down and port rates are expected to rise
The port rate of shares in Tangshan Port was at a low ebb in 2020, and the cancellation of some preferential charging policies in 2021 led to a rebound in the rate. The main port charges are priced by the market. In the future, the port capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will grow low, and port integration will ease competition and contribute to the rise of rates. In addition, the problem of environmental pollution caused by bulk cargo loading and unloading also needs to increase port charges to make up for the losses caused by environmental pollution.
Focus on the main business and increase the rate of return on reinvestment
Tangshan Port shares have spun off the less profitable commodity sales, shipping, container terminal business, focusing on the core business of profitable bulk cargo loading and unloading. As the demand for bulk cargo loading and unloading tends to be stable, the capital expenditure of Tangshan Port shares is expected to be less in the future. On the other hand, the share debt ratio of Tangshan Port is low, the cash flow is stable and abundant, and the dividend ratio is expected to increase in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation: the throughput is stable, the premium rate increases slightly, and the net profit of 2021-23 is expected to be 18.6,19.3 and 2.02 billion yuan. The reinvestment of Tangshan Port focuses on the main loading and unloading business, and the rate of return will be higher than that of commodity sales and shipping services invested in the past. According to DDM and the average PB of comparable companies, the company is given a "buy" rating of 3.65 yuan for 2021, covering it for the first time.
Risk tips: steel mills continue to strictly limit production, photovoltaic rapid development to replace thermal power, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei port capacity rapid expansion, dividend ratio decreased significantly.
