Main points of investment
Maintain the "buy", maintain the target price of HK $9.0, layout in the Central Plains, diversified development is getting better:
The company has long been rooted in Henan Province, on the basis of nearly 30 years of ploughing Henan, in Zhengzhou as the center, the radius of 500 kilometers of the Greater Central Plains, give full play to the advantages of multi-format coordination, to achieve larger-scale and higher-quality development. It is estimated that the CAGR in the next three years will not be less than 40%. The company insists on positional warfare, cuts to local life, gains the trust of citizens through intensive degree, and provides more home services. The number of Jianye + registered users has exceeded 4.7 million, with an annual compound growth rate of 87.5%. We expect the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 to be 39.9,57.8 and 8.45 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 50.4%, 44.7% and 46.3% respectively over the same period last year, and the return net profit is 6.05,8.47 and 1.183 billion yuan respectively, up 41.9%, 39.9% and 39.6% respectively over the same period last year. Maintain "buy"
The rating maintains the target price of HK $9.0, corresponding to the PE of 15, 11 and 8 times respectively from 2021 to 2023.
The net profit of homing has increased rapidly, and the proportion of related transactions has declined steadily: in the first half of 2021, the company recorded revenue of 1.56 billion yuan, an increase of 47.4% over the same period last year, and net profit of 260 million yuan, an increase of 41.3% over the same period last year. Among them, the proportion of related party transactions dropped to 36.3% from 44.9% in 2020. Split income, the company's property management services and value-added services, living services and asset management services accounted for 82%, 13% and 5% respectively in the first half of 2021.
The Jianye platform promotes the diversified development of the business, and the gross profit margin of the three sectors will remain stable in the future: during the epidemic, the company made efforts to provide community group buying and other services, achieving a 1.5-fold increase in GMV, with a repurchase rate of 55%. More door-to-door services are expected to be provided in the future. It is expected that the builder platform is the company's second growth pole, with a compound annual growth rate of not less than 80% in the future, and an estimated revenue of 900 million yuan in 2023.
The management area maintains the high growth, the market prospect is broad: as of the first half of 2021, the company's management area and contract area are 115 million square meters and 209 million square meters respectively. Among them, the new contract area of 66.1% comes from the third party extension. The proportion of pipe area outside the province is 10.8%. The growth of 40%CAGR in tube area will be realized in the next three years. In terms of M & A, there are 20 candidates in the strategic M & A pool, including 15 outside Henan Province and 5 provinces. Jianye New Life will be based on management ability and word-of-mouth, its own project density and profit margin.
Risk tips: business expansion is not as expected; property management satisfaction is reduced; property management fee collection rate is reduced; property management fee increase is blocked.