CoinShares: The quantum risk of Bitcoin is controllable, and market concerns are exaggerated.

CoinShares published an article stating that the possibility of practical quantum computers emerging in the future is not zero, sparking intense debate over the potential impact on Bitcoin's security. The quantum vulnerability of Bitcoin is not an imminent crisis but a foreseeable engineering challenge with ample time available for adjustments. From a technical perspective, the so-called quantum risks primarily stem from the potential for Shor's algorithm to crack ECDSA or Schnorr signatures, thereby exposing private keys; Grover's algorithm may theoretically weaken the security strength of SHA-256. The main potential impact would be on approximately 1.7 million BTC that use early P2PK addresses, representing about 8% of the total supply. Hence, the likelihood of triggering systemic market shocks in the short term is limited. The commonly cited claim in the market that "about 25% of the supply is at risk" is considered a significant exaggeration, as a considerable portion of this risk can be mitigated through measures such as address migration. Long-term attacks might achieve theoretical feasibility within the next decade, but short-term attacks, like cracking private keys in the mempool within 10 minutes, will remain largely impractical for the foreseeable future, potentially even for several decades. The scale of BTC that could enter the market due to potential private key exposure is estimated to be only around 10,000 BTC, and even if it occurs, the impact on the pricing system would be limited. Holders can proactively migrate to more secure address structures. Other potential targets are scattered across approximately 34,000 addresses, each averaging around 50 BTC. Even under extremely optimistic assumptions regarding quantum technological breakthroughs, completing a comprehensive attack could take several decades.