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高盛:高通胀抬升美联储降息门槛 经济指标与通胀预期成关键变量

Goldman Sachs: High inflation raises the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with economic indicators and inflation expectations becoming key variables.

Breakings ·  Mar 26 13:27

Goldman Sachs economists noted that high inflation and high inflation expectations derived from surveys set a higher threshold for potential interest rate cuts that the Federal Reserve may implement this year. They pointed out that survey data has become somewhat blurred due to the political tendencies of respondents, but this data remains significant. They added that deteriorating economic indicators could still prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates. They stated that if "market-based inflation compensation indicates that the upward trend in inflation this year will not persist beyond 2025," then the Federal Reserve officials would feel reassured. Furthermore, the weakening economy should lead to a slight decrease in inflation over the next few years. According to data from the CME Group, there is a divergence in the futures market regarding whether there will be two or three interest rate cuts this year.

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