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中金:MLF时隔8个月重启净投放 或许意味着短期降准的概率下降

CICC: The resumption of net investment in MLF after 8 months may indicate a decrease in the probability of short-term rate cuts.

Breakings ·  Mar 25 23:37

CICC's Research Reports state that on March 24, the central bank announced it would carry out 450 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, adjusting the MLF operation from a single-price bidding to multiple-price bidding. The resumption of net investment in MLF after 8 months helps align with market interest rates, reduces funding costs, and releases a signal for marginal easing. It is believed that this may indicate a decrease in the probability of short-term rate cuts, and the central bank's signal for large-scale interest rate cuts is relatively restrained. At the same time, the American-style bidding marks the exit of the MLF policy interest rate attribute. In the second half of last year, the central bank simplified policy interest rates, added soft narrow corridors, and maintained a steep curve as the three arrows to achieve the evolution of the monetary policy framework from quantity to price and smooth transmission. The emphasis on MLF rates and the strengthening of the 7-day reverse repo operation rates align with this reform direction. Since mid-March, the marginal easing of liquidity has led to a stable decline in long-term yields, but the restrained easing signal combined with the recovery of the fundamentals may indicate that long-term rates will show narrow fluctuations in the short term.

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