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中金:南向是否有“定价权”?有阶段和局部作用,但不存在“绝对定价权”

CITIC Securities: Does the Southbound have 'pricing power'? There is a phased and localized effect, but there is no 'absolute pricing power'.

Breakings ·  Mar 18 01:07

Since the beginning of the year, Southbound capital has accumulated an inflow of about 380 billion Hong Kong dollars, with an average daily inflow of 8.16 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is more than twice the average of 3.47 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2024. Regarding whether Southbound has 'pricing power', CITIC Securities stated that there is a phased and localized effect, and it may be further strengthened in the future as Southbound capital increases. However, in the open market of Hong Kong stocks, two factors determine that Southbound capital cannot have 'absolute pricing power'. First, the short-selling mechanism: the short-selling mechanism allows overseas investors to initially sell by borrowing securities from others, enabling sales without holding positions. Since 2000, the short-selling proportion in the Hong Kong stock market has steadily increased, and during periods of significant market fluctuations, it has even exceeded 20%, often playing an important role in short-term price movements. In contrast, Southbound capital is temporarily unable to participate in short selling. Second, large shareholder placements: since Southbound capital cannot participate in private placements and offerings, combined with the 'flash placement' mechanism in the Hong Kong stock market, Southbound capital faces enormous supply pressure in the short term. Unlike the A-share market, which has a review process for refinancing lasting several months, the unique flash placement model in the Hong Kong stock market allows listed companies to complete new share issuances or placements of old shares within one day after a decision by the Board of Directors. With just half of March gone, the placement scale in the Hong Kong stock market has reached 47.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, exceeding half of the historical peak of January 2021 (86 billion Hong Kong dollars), warranting attention.

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