The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the policy interest rate this week, but Barclays economists warn that the impact of tariff shocks may be more severe than indicated in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). They stated in a research report: "We believe that the risks this year are inclined towards delaying interest rate cuts." Barclays expects that the Fed's SEP will show rising inflation and unemployment rate expectations, along with a decline in GDP growth rate. However, Barclays economists forecast that the extent of GDP slowdown and inflation increase will be greater than what's shown in the SEP. They added: "Although we expect the SEP to indicate one reduction in the benchmark interest rate this year, we still believe that the committee will ultimately cut rates twice this year in June and September, each by 25 basis points."