Minsheng Macro Research Reports state that since Trump's election, US Treasury bonds, the US dollar, and US stocks have completed a 'return run' type of market. The market interprets Trump's policy mix as a set of measures leading to economic 'overheating' and 'inflation', with strong consensus expectations resulting in excessive trend trading. In such a scenario, interest rate cuts will be a long way off. The expectation of 'inflation' remains, but concerns over 'stagnation' are becoming increasingly heavy. In Trump's congressional speech on March 4, he indicated that for medium to long-term structural transformation, short-term economic discomfort can be tolerated. As a result, the market began to anticipate that Trump might aim for a 'recession' to address high inflation and high interest rates. The US dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury yields are all trending downwards, almost retracing all gains since Trump's victory, and the market's 'recession color' is rapidly rising. Through this 'return run' type of market, the uncertainty of Trump's 2.0 policies can be seen, and what may be more noteworthy is that the baseline scenario for the US economy in the near future could be stagflation.
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民生宏观:美国滞胀或是基准,黄金是“版本答案”
Minsheng Macro: USA's stagflation may be the benchmark, and Gold is the 'version answer'.
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