Danske Bank stated that the European Central Bank's policy decision has essentially been guided towards another 25 basis point reduction, bringing the policy rate to 2.75%. This is the consensus expectation among analysts and the market. Given the current uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration and the continued resilience of the domestic economy, it is expected that there will be no new signals regarding the European Central Bank's policy rate outlook. Therefore, it is anticipated that the three-tier response function (inflation outlook, potential inflation, and effectiveness of monetary policy transmission) will prevail, and the European Central Bank is expected to reaffirm its data dependence. Furthermore, the market anticipates that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates by nearly 100 basis points this year. Although it is expected that the cuts will exceed this amount, if Lagarde does not commit to an endpoint for the rate-cutting cycle, the market may experience another hawkish reaction similar to that seen in December.
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丹斯克银行:市场普遍预期欧洲央行将降息25个基点
Danske Bank: The market generally expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
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