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中信证券:预计2025年春节出行消费量增确定性高

CITIC SEC: It is expected that the consumption volume during the Spring Festival in 2025 will have high certainty for growth.

Breakings ·  Jan 22 08:25

According to CITIC SEC Research Reports, the consumption of the travel service industry in 2024 is one of the better-performing sectors primarily driven by domestic demand. Under the alleviated baseline pressure in Q4 2024, the industry is expected to show a year-on-year improvement compared to the third quarter, although the extent is below expectations. From a performance outlook, long-distance travel scenarios such as OTA and hotels have a slightly better than expected basis, while leisure scenarios such as tourist attractions and Gambling are relatively stable; although the high operating leverage of Dining and duty-free has seen some recovery, pressures remain. In the Spring Festival of 2025, a significant increase in travel consumption volume is highly certain, with a price gap still existing but showing signs of convergence. According to the Ministry of Transportation and Fei Qiao, the passenger volume for Railroads and civil aviation during the Spring Festival is expected to increase by 5.5% and 10.9% respectively, both creating historical highs and laying a foundation for the consumption prosperity during the Spring Festival. Looking ahead to 2025, balancing the demand expectations under policy transmission and the positive promotion of industry supply improvement, attention should be paid to the price turning point in the process of supply-demand rebalancing. It is recommended to allocate towards the OTA sector with strong fundamentals, and quality stocks in hotels, human resources, Dining, tourist attractions, and Gambling that are expected to gradually welcome operational turning points, while also monitoring the data trends in the duty-free sector.

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