Arend Kapteyn, chief economist of UBS Group, stated that tariffs are the biggest risk facing the Global economic outlook. UBS predicts that this year, Global economic growth will slow from about 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9%. If Trump continues to implement the tariff policy he proposed during his campaign, it could bring "the level of trade restrictions in the USA to a level that we have not seen since the mid-1930s." He added, "If these tariffs are really imposed, there could be a lot of additional downside risks to our forecast." However, Kapteyn is skeptical about whether Global tariffs will be implemented, as this is legally tricky.