CICC stated that based on high-frequency data, the overall economic running in December is expected to be stable, possibly continuing the "hot and cold" divergence characteristics of November. This is mainly reflected in: sectors directly related to policies (such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones, Real Estate sales, and Infrastructure investment physical workload, etc.) still showing good growth momentum under temporary policy support; while sectors strongly correlated with the fundamentals, where current policies are difficult to reach directly (such as non-replacement consumer goods, prices, Real Estate Investment, etc.) continue to exhibit weak running trends. It is expected that with the intensified policy support since late September, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may be 5.3% (annual GDP growth rate of 5%).
中金宏观12 月经济数据前瞻:冷热分化延续
CICC's macroeconomic forecast for December: The divergence between hot and cold will continue.
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