Research Reports from China Securities Co.,Ltd. indicate that for the rhythm of Gold Trade in 2025, the 'asymmetrical impact' of real interest rates should be considered. The rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing and the unfolding of the inflation path will continue to guide the rhythm of Gold Trade. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds (the traditional holding cost of Gold) still affects Gold prices, but may continue the new trading pattern of 'following up but not down, rising more and falling less' seen in 2023-2024. From a medium to long-term perspective, the central tendency of Gold prices will still benefit from the support of safe-haven Bids represented by central bank purchases. Over the past three years, the sustained strength of the dollar and the fundamentals of the USA are mainly due to the boost of U.S. Assets through large fiscal policies and capital repatriation, which has also correspondingly aggravated the divide between the USA and non-USA markets, forming a contrast between the dollar and non-USA Assets. Many of Trump's policy proposals may solidify or further strengthen large fiscal measures, Technology innovation, and the global capital rebalancing, shaping MAGA 2.0. The vulnerability of MAGA 2.0 lies in the high debt burden of the USA and the fragilities of the global trade system.
中信建投:2025年黄金交易节奏上,考虑实际利率的“非对称影响”
China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Considering the 'asymmetrical impact' of real interest rates on the rhythm of Gold Trade in 2025.
The translation is provided by third-party software.
The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.