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国泰君安:航空业具盈利中枢上升的超预期长逻辑 2025年供需恢复趋势确定

GTJA: The aviation industry has an unexpectedly rising profit center long logic, and the supply and demand recovery trend is confirmed for 2025.

Breakings ·  Jan 2 00:10

GTJA's Research Reports state that China's aviation industry has an unexpectedly rising profit center long logic, with the supply and demand recovery trend confirmed for 2025. Considering ticket price marketization and significantly slowing fleet growth, it is expected to initiate an upward trend in the profit center. The demand during the 2025 Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to be strong, yet domestic flight increases are limited. The industry's supply and demand expectations are optimistic, and combined with improved oil price pressure, there is potential for exceeding expected profit elasticity, catalyzing optimistic expectations. The market's expectations for the long logic of aviation remain low, and greater divergence leads to larger space for growth. Currently, the industry is optimistic about the Spring Festival travel season, with some airlines actively continuing their proactive ticket pricing strategies into the 2024 Spring Festival. In 2024, the domestic ticket price base for the Spring Festival travel season is relatively high, and proactive strategies are likely to assist in showcasing the ticket price marketization effect during the peak season of the 2025 Spring Festival.

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