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国盛证券首席经济学家熊园:2025年进一步的降准降息可期

Chief economist of Guosheng Securities, Xiong Yuan: Further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates are expected in 2025.

Breakings ·  Dec 31, 2024 14:27

Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, Xiong Yuan expects that in 2025, there may be 2 to 3 cuts, with a magnitude of 50 to 100 basis points. Based on past experience, economic growth itself requires releasing medium- and long-term funding through reserve requirement ratio cuts for support. Since 2020, there have been 1 to 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts each year, with a magnitude of 50 to 100 basis points. Regarding interest rate cuts, Xiong Yuan expects a reduction of about 40 basis points or even higher, mainly because the current interest rate calculated using "real interest rate - CPI" is around 3.4%, which is still considered relatively high, and further interest rate cuts in 2025 are still necessary.

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