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高盛:预测美联储明年3月才降息25个基点 第二季停止缩表

Goldman Sachs: Predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March next year, and will stop reducing the balance sheet in the second quarter.

Breakings ·  Dec 30, 2024 16:31

Goldman Sachs published a report predicting that the Federal Reserve will make another rate cut in March next year by 25 basis points, with further cuts of 25 basis points in June and September next year, bringing the terminal rate to between 3.5% and 3.75%. The firm also expects the Federal Reserve to slow the contraction of its balance sheet next month and stop the reduction in the second quarter. The firm forecasts that the USA's economic growth will be 2.4% next year, supported by real income growth and easing financial conditions. The PCE is expected to drop to 2.4% by the end of next year, influenced by a slowdown in housing inflation and wage pressures, while tariffs are expected to contribute to a mild inflation boost. The unemployment rate is anticipated to be 4%, reflecting the continued strength of the labor market.

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