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兴业证券:明年市场大概率震荡向上 后续两个节点需要重点关注

Industrial Securities: The market is likely to oscillate upwards next year, with two key points to focus on in the future.

Breakings ·  Dec 29, 2024 17:51

Industrial Securities released a Research Report stating that overall, the market is likely to oscillate upwards next year. However, it should be emphasized that within the larger framework of reversal logic, attention should be paid to how long this round of market performance will last. For a positive cycle to be formed between China's stock market and China's economy, a longer market duration is needed, rather than a short-term profit. Nonetheless, the improvement of China's economy will not happen overnight; this round of increase may consist of multiple phases of 'rapid increases and large fluctuations.' The bottom will gradually rise step by step. The bumps and differentiations after the rapid increases are essentially waiting for the positive interactions between the stock market and the economy. Only when the market oscillates upwards can it go further. Looking ahead, both expectations and reality are expected to drive the market upwards. According to the DDM three-factor model, under the current situation where valuation repair has been relatively sufficient, further market increases require more optimistic expectations (increasing future PE and risk preference) or an improvement in earnings.

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