GTJA stated that from 2023 to 2024, the supply and demand of China's aviation industry will continue to recover, airlines will keep reducing losses, and the logic of rising ticket prices and profit centers will be periodically validated. Looking ahead to 2025, the trend of supply and demand recovery is certain, and the profit center will rise. 1) On the supply side: International capacity increases continue to absorb capacity. The proportion of wide-body aircraft in the industry is decreasing, and the trend of domestic flight reductions while international flight increases will continue to improve the mismatch of wide-body aircraft. Additionally, the visa waiver policy is bullish for the increase in international flights, which will accelerate the absorption of excess domestic capacity. 2) On the demand side: Consumer aviation in China is still in the early stages, with resilient demand and endogenous growth momentum, providing large long-term potential. The growth rate of aviation demand is expected to rebound in 2024, with policy boosts anticipated in 2025. 3) It is expected that the strategies of airlines for revenue management will change positively in 2025, which is likely to accelerate the rise of the profit center.
国泰君安:2025年航空业供需恢复趋势确定,有望开启盈利中枢上行
GTJA: The trend of supply and demand recovery in the aviation industry is certain by 2025, and it is expected to initiate an upward movement in the profit center.
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