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中金公司:展望2025年家居品类的消费弹性释放及家居社零有望进一步回暖

China International Capital Corporation: Looking ahead to 2025, the Consumer elasticity in the home goods category is expected to be released, and retail sales of home goods are likely to further warm up.

Breakings ·  Dec 20 08:25

China International Capital Corporation's Research Reports indicate that as the current round of trade-ins approaches its end, the market is generally concerned about the stimulating effects of trade-ins on the home category and the outlook for next year. We have sorted the progress and effects of trade-in activities in various provinces for 2024. Since September, a package of policies has effectively driven the recovery of terminal sales in the home and home decoration sectors. We estimate that the multiplier effect of the current trade-in subsidy policy for home and home decoration is significant, with the subsidy amount expected to amplify terminal consumption by 1.17-1.75 times. Looking ahead to 2025, with the scale and scope of the subsidy policy further expanding, it is expected to continue driving the release of consumption elasticity in the home category and further boost home retail sales.

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