The China Index Academy states that new home sales in 2025 need to stabilize and stop falling sustainably, with the key being the effective implementation of policies at one go. Key policies include: (1) Accelerating the implementation of MMF for the relocation of 1 million sets of urban village renovations, calculating 100 square meters per set, which could lead to approximately 0.1 billion square meters of Residence sales, contributing about 10% to the total market volume (with some part expected to convert into actual sales in 2025). (2) Accelerating the implementation of 300 billion yuan in re-loans for affordable housing to replenish the stock of existing houses. If the funds are fully utilized, it is estimated that it could leverage 375 billion yuan (20% from the companies’ own funds and 80% from loans), leading to more than 36 million square meters of Residence sales, which accounts for about 4.6% of the total market. Additionally, if the incremental policy takes a “headcount subsidy” approach to increase purchase subsidies (which can be issued in the form of “housing vouchers” restricted for purchasing new homes), it could further accelerate the de-inventory of the market.
中指研究院:2025年新房销售要持续性“止跌回稳”,核心是政策“一鼓作气”落实到位
The China Index Academy states that new home sales in 2025 need to stabilize and stop falling sustainably, with the key being the effective implementation of policies at one go.
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