According to the Minsheng Macro Research Reports, the "threshold" for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has increased, and the next rate cut may need to see inflation returning to a downward trend. There may be 2-3 rate cuts throughout next year, with a possible earlier pace. In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve may enter a "wait-and-see" period: waiting for the impact of Trump's policy "combination strikes" on economic data to further transmit. As the impact of tariffs and tightened immigration on the demand side becomes apparent, there is a possibility of further rate cuts in 2026.