China Merchants Macro Research Reports mentioned, how to understand the current attitude of the Federal Reserve and the pace of subsequent policies? There may be a pause in interest rate cuts in January next year, with a total reduction of about 50 basis points throughout the year, but it is highly likely to be concentrated in the second half. Powell's remarks indicate that as long as the economy and employment remain stable, and inflation remains sticky, a pause in interest rate cuts is a likely event. The factors that would trigger a rate cut are increased economic and employment risks or a rapid decline in inflation. We expect that under the resonance of stable economic and asset prices, and the upward risk in inflation, the probability of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts may be higher in Q1 or even H1 of next year; if Trump's policies lead to an economic slowdown and a halt in the rise of U.S. stocks, the Federal Reserve may consider cutting rates again.