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分析师:美联储点阵图预测或回到6月份,明年降息一次才是意外鹰派

Analyst: The Fed's dot plot forecast may return to June, and a rate cut once next year would be an unexpected hawkish move.

Breakings ·  01:53

Analyst Adam Button from the financial website Forexlive: The median forecast for the 2025 interest rate in the Federal Reserve's economic projections summary for September is 3.4%, down from the June forecast of 4.1%. This situation is likely to reverse in December, at least to some extent. The Federal Funds Futures market anticipates an interest rate of 3.84% by the end of 2025, which is almost exactly preparing for two additional rate cuts next year. One of these may occur at the March meeting, while the second could happen in July or September. It would not be surprising if the Federal Reserve's median interest rate forecast remains unchanged or rises to align with market pricing. If the dot plot shows only one further rate cut, it would be a hawkish surprise that causes market volatility.

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