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中金:市场中期不悲观,建议从景气回升和供给出清的视角去布局结构机会

CICC: The market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and it is recommended to layout structural opportunities from the perspective of economic recovery and supply clearing.

Breakings ·  Dec 17, 2024 08:35

China International Capital Corporation stated that the economic data for November is still in the recovery process, with short-term market fluctuations and a not pessimistic medium-term outlook. Since September, macro policies have shifted and actively strengthened, reflected in the recent marginal improvement in economic data, such as the sales area of commercial housing in November turning positive year-on-year for the first time in nearly three years, and the M1 Indicator has also narrowed. However, inflation and consumer data still need improvement. Looking ahead, the market will enter a policy observation period, with policy signals from the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference gradually being implemented. Various ministries will also clarify their work for 2025, and during this phase, the market is likely to mainly digest through fluctuations. Combined with the positive and clear policy direction of "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets," as well as the relatively active current funding situation and generally low institutional positions, we expect the market's downward space to be very limited. In terms of allocation, the monetary policy's stance of "moderately loose" is driving interest rates to decline rapidly, making the dividend style attractive again. Furthermore, before significant improvements in core data such as inflation, while supervision actively supports the market, we anticipate that the small and mid-cap style will relatively dominate. At the industry level, it is recommended to layout structural opportunities from the perspective of economic recovery and supply clearance, while also paying attention to industries benefiting from domestic demand support, mergers and acquisitions, market capitalization management, and debt dissolution policies.

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