According to China International Capital Corporation's Research Reports, looking ahead to 2025, papermaking demand is expected to recover to moderate growth under strong support from policies for Consumer spending, while the supply side is at the end of the capacity cycle. The supply-demand balance for boxboard and printing paper is relatively easier to restore, while pulp may primarily fluctuate after stabilizing at the bottom. In stock selection, there is a tendency towards combinations with rich safety margins and balanced offense and defense. In the medium to long term, the scarcity of companies with high-quality forest land and pulp resources is increasing. It is estimated that from 2023 to the present, the Global new commodity pulp capacity has exceeded 8 million tons (accounting for over 10% of 2023 commodity pulp capacity). Looking forward, the next large commodity pulp project may not be operational until 2027, with no highly certain large projects in the meantime; considering the ongoing global economic growth, upstream wood chips and pulp resources may both become increasingly tight, thus being Bullish on companies with high-quality forest land and pulp resources.
中金公司2025年展望:造纸需求复苏起点 产能周期尾声
China International Capital Corporation's 2025 Outlook: The Recovery Starting Point of Papermaking Demand and the End of the Capacity Cycle.
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