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银河证券解读11月经济数据:供需分化再现,仍待政策接力

Galaxy Securities interprets the economic data for November: the reappearance of supply and demand differentiation, still awaiting policy support.

Breakings ·  Dec 17, 2024 07:58

The Research Reports from Galaxy Securities indicate that economic data in November showed a steady recovery, but there is again some divergence between supply and demand. From the supply side, the industrial added value in November remained at a high level, mainly benefiting from the increased stockpiling by enterprises under the intensified 'Two New' policies and the logic of seizing export opportunities. Combining this with the strong performance of the service industry production index, the estimated GDP growth rate for November using the production method reached 5.6%, making it likely that the annual economic growth target of 5% will be successfully achieved. On the demand side, both consumption and investment data saw a slight decline, mainly affected by short-term factors, with the decrease in consumption growth primarily impacted by the pre-positioning effect of shopping festivals, partially diverting November consumption; Infrastructure growth also declined slightly, mainly due to the completion of project bond issuance within the year, leading to a brief 'window period' before the special bonds for next year and special government bonds are issued. In short, the effects of counter-cyclical policy intensification are gradually becoming evident, but the supply side is performing more prominently, while the demand side still needs time for verification. The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized expanding domestic demand as the top of the nine key tasks, making the expectation for closing the gap between supply and demand next year promising.

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