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国盛固收:资产荒依然对债市形成有利支撑

Guosheng Fixed Income: The scarcity of Assets continues to provide favorable support for the bond market.

Breakings ·  Dec 17, 2024 07:55

The Guosheng Fixed Income Research Report points out that the scarcity of Assets continues to provide favorable support for the bond market, but earlier significant interest rate declines and constraints on the funding side may lead to short-term fluctuations in long-term rates, with long credit potentially offering better opportunities. November economic data has declined on a month-on-month basis, and following the central economic work conference's assessment, it is expected that more policy space for stable growth will gradually open next year. In the short term, there is insufficient pressure on Asset supply, while the allocation force remains strong, which means the continued scarcity of Assets provides favorable support for the bond market, compounded by strengthened expectations of monetary easing, making it difficult for the bond market to adjust significantly. However, the earlier significant decline in interest rates partly reflects expectations for rate easing, and the pressure on Banks' liabilities places certain constraints on funding and the bond market; therefore, we anticipate that short-term interest rates may remain volatile. Considering that credit spreads are at a high level, after fluctuations in interest rates, more funds may flow into the credit market, where credit bonds have higher allocation value, especially those around 5 years and ultra-long credit.

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