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中信证券首席经济学家明明:债券投资近期的机遇还来源于跨年行情的启动

CITIC SEC's chief economist Mingming: Recent opportunities in Bonds investment also stem from the initiation of the year-end market.

Breakings ·  07:33

CITIC SEC's chief economist Mingming believes that recent opportunities in Bonds investment also come from the initiation of the year-end market. Since 2019, a pattern for the year-end bond market has gradually formed, with the 10-year government bond yield generally declining at year-end, and this year's year-end market pattern is continuing. Behind this, on one hand, Insurance and other allocation-type funds choose to allocate in advance at year-end; on the other hand, Other Institutions are competing over the aforementioned allocation behavior, intensifying the preemptive effect, ultimately pushing down long-term and ultra-long-term bond rates at year-end. Industry insiders analyze that compared to previous quarters, the current Bonds market strategy emphasizes trading and allocation of bonds with longer maturities, which contrasts with the previous strategy of betting on high coupon rates. Mingming considers that the "moderately loose monetary policy" has shifted from the previous "prudent monetary policy" setting, and a larger rate cut is expected moving forward. From the transmission logic of policy interest rates to market interest rates, if the policy interest rates decline significantly, it will constitute a Bullish condition for the continued decline of the 10-year government bond yield.

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