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粤开证券罗志恒:预计2025年货币政策力度将进一步加大 全年或分别降准、降息0.5个百分点

Yuekai Securities' Luo Zhiheng: It is expected that in 2025, the strength of the MMF policy will further increase, with a potential reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate by 0.5 percentage points throughout the year.

Breakings ·  12:16

The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Peking from December 11 to 12. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and director of the research institute at Yuekai Securities, believes that overall, the tone of the conference is more positive, as it releases encouraging signals regarding next year's work goals, policy tone, and task deployment, which is beneficial for enhancing and solidifying the momentum for continued economic recovery next year. As long as larger-scale fiscal and MMF policies are implemented and coordinated, and breakthroughs are made in a series of institutional reforms that constrain development, achieving a growth rate of around 5% for the Chinese economy next year remains highly probable. Luo Zhiheng expects that, in 2025, the strength of the MMF policy will further increase, with potential reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate by 0.5 percentage points throughout the year, with possibly an earlier pace. Additionally, the MMF policy toolbox will continue to be further enriched and improved. On one hand, policies will be adjusted and optimized to support guaranteed housing refinancing, "the convenience of securities, funds, and insurance company swaps," and the implementation of Share Buyback and Shareholding refinancing policies will be made effective; on the other hand, there may be an appropriate narrowing of the width of the interest rate corridor to guide the interest rates in the money market to operate steadily around the central policy interest rate.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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