The CITIC Securities Research Report said that looking back at history, actual short-term interest rate expectations in the interest rate cut cycle since 1983 are usually the main driving force behind the decline in interest rates on 10-year US bonds, while term premiums may rise during the interest rate cut cycle if affected by factors such as supply and demand, deficit concerns, and external shocks. Looking ahead, it is estimated that 4.0% will be the interest rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds in the short termSupport levelNext year, due to factors such as monetary policy and the “Trump deal,” interest rates on 10-year US bonds may show an upward trend.