China International Capital Corporation released a research report stating that the USA's November CPI and core CPI both rose by 0.31% month-on-month, basically in line with market expectations. Regarding the post-election policy, if immigration and tariff policies are implemented too aggressively, it will put pressure on inflation by the end of next year, which will also affect the market and even the mid-term election landscape. Therefore, it is inclined to be quicker on inflation policies before the mid-term elections due to the 'realistic constraints' of inflation, although the extent may be limited, while the speed of growth policies may be faster, leading to a generally positive outlook for assets. Based on the difference between natural rates and actual rates, China International Capital Corporation estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be 2-3 opportunities for rate cuts in 2025, with the terminal rate between 3.5-3.75%, corresponding to the central point of long-term US Treasury bonds at 3.8-4%.
中金:美国11月CPI如期走高 但无碍降息
CICC: USA's November CPI rose as expected, but does not hinder rate cuts.
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