Chaos Tiancheng Futures states that the excessive import volume of rapeseed in the fourth quarter creates supply pressure, while the demand side is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the low price differential between Soybean Oil and rapeseed oil is beneficial for rapeseed oil consumption, providing short-term bottom support for rapeseed oil. In the long term, the global reduction in rapeseed production has led to a year-on-year decrease in rapeseed oil inventories, supporting future rapeseed oil. Nanhua Futures believes that overall, the supply sources and channels for rapeseed oil are gradually being less affected by rapeseed import restrictions. Currently, due to the excellent cost performance of Soybean Oil, apart from the seasonal growth in rapeseed oil consumption, no additional increments from competition in the oil market are being considered. However, as rapeseed oil inventories continue to fluctuate at high levels, there is a possibility that rapeseed oil will seek demand by competing for prices with Soybean Oil, thus the future inventories and consumption of rapeseed oil will have a relatively clear inverse correlation, while the supply remains relatively constant and lacks elasticity.
机构:全球菜籽减产使菜油库存同比下降 对远月菜油有支撑
Institutions: The Global reduction in rapeseed production has led to a year-on-year decline in vegetable oil stock, providing support for future months' vegetable oil prices.
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