GTJA stated that the current main contradiction is the real interest rate, and guiding the interest rate downward has started the prelude to stabilize prices (more important than sales volume). Interest rates, credit tools, and investment projects are the three current economic key points, with the most worthy of attention in the real estate sector being the interest rate policy, while the credit policy can be weakened. The correlation between volume and price is weakening, with prices accompanying the economy and credit, possessing long-term growth potential. In the era of post-urbanization, the relationship between volume and price is weakening, with volume tied to population cycles, while prices emphasize economic strength and mmf supply. The core variable in 2025 is price, gradually opening up the outlook for the business model. All assumptions are based on the stabilization of prices, and based on the determination of the main contradiction, prices have the conditions to stabilize, therefore, future prospects will gradually unfold, and some companies will also have the opportunity to undergo business model transformation.
国泰君安地产2025年度策略:核心变量就是价格,逐步开启商业模式展望的预期
GTJA Real Estate's 2025 strategy: The core variable is price, gradually opening up the outlook for the business model.
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