Citic sec research reports state that as of October 2024, under the original rules, the M1 balance was 63.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.10%; according to our assessments, if we include household demand deposits and client reserve funds from third-party payment institutions, the 'adjusted M1 balance' for October 2024 is 105 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.3%; the absolute value of 'adjusted M1 growth rate' is consistently higher than the M1 growth rate under the original rules, while long-term fluctuations are also more stable. Additionally, the growth rate differential between M2 and M1 decreased from 13.60% to 9.83% in October 2024; although the 'adjusted M1' indicator shows some optimization in absolute value compared to the original M1, it still cannot mask the overall weak state of the current economic credit environment. A review of this year shows that the 'adjusted M1 growth rate' has continuously declined and has fallen into the negative range, while the growth rate differential with M2 remains at a high level; furthermore, the adjusted M1 indicator still provides good guidance for indicators such as PPI and inventory of industrial finished products in economic forecasting.
中信证券:M1统计口径修订落地后的影响和测算
Citic sec: The impact and assessment after the revision of M1 statistical caliber.
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