HTSC's research reports suggest that from the perspectives of fundamentals, liquidity, and policy expectations, this round of "year-end market" may have a certain foundation: 1) In terms of fundamentals, the PMI has risen for three consecutive months and is stronger than seasonal trends, and the midstream economic index tracked by HTSC has also improved on a month-on-month basis; 2) In terms of liquidity, the usd and US Treasury rates have declined; insurance premium income on the liability side has increased year-on-year since the beginning of the year, insurance funds and etf may provide incremental capital; 3) Policy expectations have warmed up before the Central Economic Work Conference. However, sustainability faces challenges: 1) The strength and effectiveness of policies have yet to be verified, and the transmission of broad fiscal expansion to the credit cycle will still take time; 2) Before Trump officially takes office, the negative impact of potential tariff policies may be repeatedly traded; 3) The sustainability of thematic profit-making effects and the recovery of trading capital need further observation.
华泰证券:本轮“跨年行情”或具备一定基础,但持续性面临考验
HTSC: This round of "year-end market" may have a certain foundation, but its sustainability faces challenges.
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