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Breakings ·  01:46

Utilities Add Gas Into Storage for Fourth Week in a Row

Daily Feedgas to US LNG Export Plants on Track to Hit Nine-Month High

Colder Than Normal Weather Expected in Late November

Adds EIA Storage Report and Latest Prices

By Scott Disavino

- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slid About 2% on Thursday on an Increase in Daily Output and a Federal Report Showing Utilities Added More Gas to Storage Than Usual Last Week for a Fourth Week in a Row, the First Such Consecutive Run Since October 2022.

That Price Decline Came Despite Forecasts for Colder Weather and More Heating Demand Over the Next Two Weeks Than Previously Expected and the Increase in the Amount of Gas Flowing to the Country's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Export Plants to a Nine-Month High.

Front-Month Gas Futures Ngc1 for December Delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange Fell 6.7 Cents, or 2.3%, to $2.916 per Million British Thermal Units (Mmbtu) at 10:40 A.m. Edt (1540 Gmt). on Wednesday, the Contract Closed at Its Highest Since June 12.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Said Utilities Added 42 Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) of Gas Into Storage During the Week Ended Nov. 8.

That Was in Line With the 44-Bcf Build Analysts Forecast in a Reuters Poll and Compares With an Increase of 41 Bcf in the Same Week Last Year and a Five-Year (2019-2023) Average Rise of 29 Bcf for This Time of Year. EIA/Gas Ngas/Poll

Analysts Said Mild Weather Over the Last Month Kept Heating Demand Low, Allowing Utilities to Inject More Gas Into Storage Than Usual. the Forecasters Were so Far Uncertain Whether Utilities Would Add or Pull Gas During the Week Ended Nov. 15 Since Supply and Demand Were Very Close.

Prior to the Last Few Weeks, However, Injections Had Been Smaller Than Usual for 14 Straight Weeks Because Many Producers Reduced Drilling Activities This Year After Average Spot Monthly Prices at the U.S. Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl Benchmark in Louisiana Fell to a 32-Year Low for the Month of March. Prices Have Remained Relatively Soft Since Then, Dropping to a 23-Year Low in October.

Supply and Demand

Financial Firm Lseg Said Average Gas Output in the Lower 48 U.S. States Eased to 100.2 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (Bcfd) so Far in November, Down From 101.3 Bcfd in October. That Compares With a Record 105.3 Bcfd in December 2023.

On a Daily Basis, However, Output Was on Track to Rise by About 2.0 Bcfd Over the Last Four Days to a Six-Day High of 100.5 Bcfd on Thursday, up From a Nine-Month Low of 98.4 Bcfd on Monday.

Meteorologists Projected Weather in the Lower 48 States Will Remain Warmer Than Normal Through Nov. 20 Before Turning Mostly Colder Than Normal From Nov. 21-29.

With Seasonally Colder Weather Coming, Lseg Forecast Average Gas Demand in the Lower 48, Including Exports, Would Rise From 108.3 Bcfd This Week to 109.8 Bcfd Next Week. Those Forecasts Were Higher Than Lseg's Outlook on Wednesday.

The Amount of Gas Flowing to the Seven Big U.S. LNG Export Plants Edged up to an Average of 13.3 Bcfd so Far in November, up From 13.1 Bcfd in October. That Compares With a Monthly Record High of 14.7 Bcfd in December 2023.

On a Daily Basis, LNG Feedgas Was on Track to Rise From 14.0 Bcfd on Wednesday to a Nine-Month High of 14.4 Bcfd on Thursday as Flows to a Few Plants Hit Multi-Week Highs.

Week Ended Nov 8 Forecast

Week Ended Nov 1 Actual

Year Ago Nov 8

Five-Year Average

Nov 8

U.S. Weekly Natgas Storage Change (Bcf):

+44

+69

+41

+29

U.S. Total Natgas in Storage (Bcf):

3,976

3,932

3,816

3,746

U.S. Total Storage Versus 5-Year Average

6.1%

5.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per Mmbtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub Ngc1

2.95

2.98

3.06

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (Ttf) Trnlttfmc1

13.91

13.52

14.45

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (Jkm) Jkmc1

13.56

13.57

17.02

14.39

14.31

Lseg Heating (Hdd), Cooling (Cdd) and Total (Tdd) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. Gfs Hdds

286

263

255

283

305

U.S. Gfs Cdds

7

10

10

12

9

U.S. Gfs Tdds

293

273

265

295

314

Lseg U.S. Weekly Gfs Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average for Month

U.S. Supply (Bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

100.9

99.5

99.4

104.3

98.0

U.S. Imports From Canada

8.5

9.0

8.0

N/a

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

109.4

108.4

107.4

N/a

105.9

U.S. Demand (Bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.4

2.4

2.4

N/a

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.6

5.8

6.1

N/a

5.5

U.S. LNG Exports

12.4

14.0

14.3

13.8

11.0

U.S. Commercial

8.0

9.6

10.5

8.8

11.5

U.S. Residential

10.6

13.6

15.8

11.8

16.8

U.S. Power Plant

33.1

32.7

29.8

28.7

28.8

U.S. Industrial

22.7

23.1

23.5

22.6

24.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.1

3.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

81.7

86.2

86.9

79.1

90.0

Total U.S. Demand

102.1

108.3

109.8

N/a

109.4

N/a Is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (Nwrfc) at the Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2003

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-SEP

92

91

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

87

86

76

77

102

Oct-SEP

89

88

77

76

103

U.S. Weekly Power Generation Percent by Fuel - EIA

Week Ended Nov 15

Week Ended Nov 8

2023

2022

2021

Wind

13

13

10

11

10

Solar

5

4

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

42

43

41

38

37

Coal

13

14

17

21

23

Nuclear

20

19

19

19

20

Snl U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per Mmbtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl

2.06

1.92

Transco Z6 New York Ng-CG-NY-Snl

2.00

1.86

PG&E Citygate Ng-CG-Pge-Snl

3.67

2.98

Eastern Gas (Old Dominion South) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl

1.81

1.71

Chicago Citygate Ng-CG-CH-Snl

2.01

1.88

Algonquin Citygate Ng-CG-Bs-Snl

2.60

2.79

Socal Citygate Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl

2.59

2.62

Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl

-0.47

-0.52

Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl

0.77

0.64

Snl U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per Megawatt-Hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England El-Pk-Npms-Snl

54.00

46.00

Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl

42.75

42.50

ERCOT North El-Pk-Ertn-Snl

22.75

29.88

Mid C El-Pk-Midc-Snl

30.00

27.00

Palo Verde El-Pk-Plvd-Snl

26.50

32.75

SP-15 El-Pk-SP15-Snl

36.00

36.00


(Reporting by Scott Disavino; Editing by Shreya Biswas and Barbara Lewis)

((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))

For Gas Data on the Lseg Terminal Type Energy in the Search Bar and Then Go to the Gas Drop Down and the North America Drop Down.

For Interactive Map, Type 'interactive Map' in the Box at Upper Left of the Lseg Terminal

For Graphics on Baker Hughes Rig Counts, See: Http://Graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/Rigcount/Index.html

For Next-Day Snl U.S. Gas Prices, See: 0#Snl-Ng

For Next-Day Snl U.S. Power Prices, See: 0#Snl-Pwr

For U.S. Natgas Price and Storage Polls, See: Ngas/Poll

For U.S. Nuclear Power Outages, See: Nuke/

For U.S. Northwest Hydro Power Report, See: Nwrfc

For U.S./Canada Natural Gas Rig Count Vs Henry Hub Futures Price, See: Http://Tmsnrt.rs/2Et9K44

For the U.S. Natural Gas Speed Guide, See: Usgas

For the U.S. Power Speed Guide, See: Uspower

To Determine CFTC Managed Money Net Position Add (Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023651Mnet) Plus (Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023391Mnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 303565Bmnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 303565Cmnet Divided by Four)

Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023651

Nymex Henry Hub Futures Only 0#1CFTC023651

Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC023391

Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 0#3CFTC03565B

Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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