Zhongjin research reports that the market's expectations for the future interest rate cuts have been swinging from one extreme to another, particularly influenced by recent economic data and post-election expectations. Currently, CME interest rates futures expect only 3 more rate cuts, in December this year, March and June next year, reaching 3.75-4%. Although we have never agreed with the overly optimistic market view that assumes a 50bp rate cut starting point and over 200bp rate cuts by next year, the current expectations may once again be too pessimistic. Taking a comprehensive estimate, a rate cut of around 3.5% (equivalent to another 100bp rate cut) may be an appropriate level.
中金:美联储3.5%左右的降息幅度(即对应再度降息100bp)或是合适水平
Zhongjin: A rate cut of around 3.5% by the Federal Reserve (equivalent to another 100 basis points cut) may be an appropriate level.
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