HTSC research reports believe that for copper, determining the probability of oversupply in 2025-2026 is a major event, with the improvement or deterioration of the situation depending on disturbances in copper mining production. In 2025, with the expectation of loose policies in China, expected interest rate cuts in the USA, and expected fiscal expansion in the USA, liquidity and economic expectations may both improve, leading to a possible rise in copper prices in the first half of the year; however, with a potential economic slowdown in the USA later, there might be pressure. Regarding aluminum, the strong resilience of demand was evident in 2024, with limited drag from the slowdown in real estate and photovoltaics growth, while demand from ultra high pressure, autos, and home appliances performed well. Looking ahead to 2025, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum supply may further decrease, the supply-demand situation may continue to improve, and electrolytic aluminum profits are expected to continue to expand.
华泰证券:2025年铜价或前高后低 电解铝利润有望继续走扩
HTSC: Copper prices in 2025 may peak and then decline. Electrolytic aluminum profits are expected to continue to expand.
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