Htsc stated that due to the expansion of some low-cost mines and the timely progress of new projects, the long-term lithium oversupply situation is likely to continue. However, as the current concentrate prices are close to the cost lines of Australian mines like Mt Marion and Wodgina, coupled with the difficulty of sustaining cost reduction through improving ore grades in African mines in 2024, whether the low-priced lithium carbonate in 2025 can trigger mine production cuts or if the supply-demand situation will see a turning point repair is crucial. The lithium price in 2025 may still fluctuate and seek a bottom, while waiting for overseas mines to be cleared. In terms of rare earths, the growth rate of the domestic supply side is gradually converging, with the geopolitical situation in Myanmar intensifying disruptions to rare earth supplies. The demand side of new energy vehicles may maintain high growth, with a clear trend of improving long-term supply-demand relationships. The bottom of the rare earth boom may have been confirmed in 2024, and the price changes in 2025 may synchronize with the economy.
2025年锂价或震荡寻底,稀土景气度底部或已获确认
In 2025, lithium prices may fluctuate and seek bottoming out, while the bottom of the rare earth boom may have been confirmed.
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