Citigroup has lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price expectation from $74 per barrel to $70, because Israel's attacks on Iran avoided oil facilities, leading to confusion in crude oil futures. A Citigroup analyst stated: "Recent Israeli military actions are unlikely to be viewed by the market as leading to an escalation of conflict, thereby affecting oil supply, so we expect that, under our base expectations, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market will be lower than our previous expectations." Citigroup has increased the likelihood of events based on their base expectations from 60% to 70%, and reduced the possibility of Brent crude oil prices rising to $120 to 10%, as reaching the high of $120 per barrel requires a significant event or situation that triggers an oil supply issue.