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浙商证券:旅游板块仍具备增长的确定性

Zheshang pointed out that the tourism sector still has growth certainty.

Breakings ·  Oct 25 08:27

Zheshang's research report pointed out that the tourism sector still has growth certainty, and subsequent policy support is expected to continue. In the macroeconomy, under the situation of weak economic recovery and pressure on CPI, leisure demand is better than business travel demand, service consumption recovery is better than commodity consumption recovery, and the trend of lower-tier markets is better than first and second-tier cities. The growth of leisure demand is reflected in passenger flow, driven by the inherent resilience of tourism consumption during weak periods, continuous expansion of the population (young people's niche demand + silver economy), improvement in transportation, the viral capacity of social media, and strong promotion of local cultural tourism. 1) OTA sector benefits from medium to long-term growth and short-term structural improvement resonance. 2) The scenic area sector has a stable business model, high ROE, and highlighted allocation value. Although scenic area companies are facing weather impacts, population differentiation, and performance differentiation this year, they benefit overall from the growth in tourist numbers driving, and are not affected by price fluctuations, with significant profit elasticity under operating leverage. From an investment perspective, policies, marginal improvements in transportation, and expansion of scenic area projects are expected to catalyze stock prices, and the performance elasticity period below the low base in the first quarter of 2025 is expected. Recommended focus: Huangshan Tourism Development, Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development, Changbai Mountain Tourism, etc.

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