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花旗:预计内银明年净息差将进一步降至1.4%以下 首选招商银行

Citi expects the net interest margin of China mainland banks index to further decrease to below 1.4% next year. The first choice is CM Bank.

Breakings ·  Oct 22 11:50

Citi's research report states that after the People's Bank of China reduced the current and fixed deposit rates by 10 and 25 basis points last Friday (18th), it announced yesterday (21st) that the 1-year and 5-year deposit rates were lowered by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. This is consistent with the guidance issued by the bank on the 24th of last month, which symmetrically lowered deposit rates by 20 to 25 basis points in the fourth quarter of this year. The bank believes that these adjustments will have a neutral impact on the net interest margin of csi china mainland banks index based on a static basis. However, due to loans repricing faster than deposits repricing, the bank thinks that banks' net interest margin will further decrease to below 1.4% in 2025, with sustainable net interest margin of banks ranging from 1.6% to 1.7%. Citi believes this will require the six largest state-owned csi china mainland banks to undertake a capital restructuring plan of approximately one trillion yuan. Facing persistent net interest margin pressure and capital fundraising risks, compared to the six major banks, the bank prefers CM Bank due to its competitive dividend yield, limited capital fundraising risks, benefiting from the transformation of capital markets, and alleviation of concerns regarding the quality of domestic real estate assets. The bank is also bullish on CQRC Bank, as a representative of the Ministry of Finance accelerating the exchange of local government debts.

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