CITIC Securities research reports indicate that the year-end CPI in the United States is expected to rise to 2.8% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.2%. The inflation of US food items may face temporary pressure, while the upward inflation risk of US energy items is limited. The month-on-month growth rate of core commodity inflation in the US may fluctuate near zero growth, and core service items may have certain stickiness. It is expected that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is high, with an additional 50 basis points rate cut space within the year. In the short term, the upward risk of short-term US bond yields is limited, while long-term US bond yields may experience wide fluctuations.