Citic Sec research reports point out that it is expected that the year-end CPI in the USA will rise by 2.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI will be 3.2%. The inflation of the US food category may face temporary pressure, and the inflation risk of the US energy category is limited. The month-on-month growth rate of the core commodity inflation in the USA may fluctuate near zero growth, and the core service sector may have certain stickiness. It is expected that there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with still 50 basis points of rate cut space within the year. In the short term, the upward risk of short-term US bond yields is limited, while long-term US bond yields may oscillate widely.