Many forecasters believe that the US August core PCE price index month-on-month will be below 0.2%. A modest reading of 0.1% could lead to a 12-month core PCE annual rate higher than the Fed's 2% target, around 2.3%. However, jpmorgan economists indicate that the annualized inflation rate for the past three months will be around 1.8%-1.9%, which could prompt the Fed to cut rates by another 50 basis points in November. jpmorgan wrote that if today's PCE data is as expected, the non-farm payroll report in September one week later will provide a clearer signal.