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荷兰国际:料英国央行按兵不动,但未来降息速度将加快

ING International: Bank of England expected to hold interest rates steady, but the pace of future rate cuts will accelerate.

Breakings ·  Sep 19 11:09

ING International Banks' analysis states that the tone of the Bank of England's August meeting and subsequent official speeches clearly indicate that they do not want the market to assume this will be a rapid easing cycle. This caution can also be explained by the service industry inflation, with a 5.2% growth rate still above the levels of the USA and the Eurozone, and very similar to wage growth. Job vacancies have almost returned to pre-Covid levels, but officials remain concerned that wage growth has been consistently faster than previous forecasts. Therefore, the threshold for an interest rate cut at the September meeting seems quite high. This rate decision has no new economic forecasts or press conference, and the policy statement may lack any important signals about the future direction of interest rates. However, by the time of the November and December meetings, the pace of rate cuts may accelerate. We can already see from the survey of central bank decision-makers' group that, up to now this year, expected and realized wage/price growth has decreased significantly. Assuming this situation continues and becomes more pronounced in official data, the bank believes that consecutive rate cuts after November could bring interest rates down to 3.25% by the end of next summer. By the end of this year, the Euro and Pound Sterling will trade near levels of 0.85 and 1.29 respectively.

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