Investors are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates significantly this week, but they are likely to be disappointed because the performance of the US economy does not warrant aggressive rate cuts. According to CME's Fed-watch tool, the current prices of US interest rate futures indicate a 65% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 116 basis point rate cut this year. However, a series of economic data on Tuesday prompted the Atlanta Fed to raise its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the US from 2.6% to 3.0%, indicating that the economy is not as bad as expected. After weighing all the factors, the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points and Powell may reiterate data dependency. The Fed's dot plot is unlikely to confirm the pricing of aggressive and rapid rate cuts, but rather suggests a more moderate pace of easing. This could be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut," forcing investors who bet heavily on large rate cuts to cover their positions.